Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) for SaaS at Seed
About This Metric
Total revenue a business can expect from a single customer account over the entire relationship.
Higher is better · Unit: currency
How to Improve
Ehsan's Analysis
SaaS LTV calculations are almost always fantasies. The standard formula (ARPU × gross margin ÷ churn rate) assumes constant churn and constant ARPU, which are never true. Real SaaS LTV follows a power curve: you lose 30-50% of customers in year one, 15-25% in year two, and 5-10% annually after that. Cohort-based LTV analysis at Zuora showed that the "average" SaaS customer (which does not exist) has an LTV 40% lower than what the formula predicts because early churn is dramatically underweighted. The fix: calculate LTV using observed cohort revenue curves, not formulas. Take your January 2024 cohort, sum all revenue they generated through today, project the curve forward using actual retention data, and discount at 10%. This number is always lower and always more accurate than ARPU/churn. The companies where the formula works — Salesforce, ServiceNow — have negative churn, which breaks the formula in the other direction (LTV = infinity).
Ehsan Jahandarpour
AI Growth Strategist & Fractional CMO · Forbes Top 20 Growth Hacker · TEDx Speaker · 716 Academic Citations